Bayesian Methods of Representative Values of Variable Actions

Abstract

In engineering practice, it is sometimes necessary to infer the representative value of variable action under the condition that the test data is insufficient, but the classical statistics methods adopted now do not take into account the influences of statistical uncertainty, and the inferring results are always small, especially when characteristic and frequent values are inferred. Variable actions usually obey a type I maximum distribution, so the linear regression estimation of the tantile of type I minimum distribution can be employed to infer their characteristic and frequent values. However, it is inconvenient to apply and cannot totally meet the demands of characteristic and frequent values inference. Applying Jeffreys non-informative prior distribution, Bayesian methods for inferring characteristic and frequent values of variable actions are put forward, including that with known standard deviation, which could yield more advantageous results. The methods proposed are convenient and flexible, possessing good precision.

Keywords

• Bayesian methods
• minor samples
• representative values
• statistical inference
• variable actions