Cascade and pre-slip models oversimplify the complexity of earthquake preparation in nature

Abstract

Abstract Earthquake precursory processes have been central to scientific inquiry for nearly a century. Recent advancements in earthquake monitoring, geodesy, and data analysis including artificial intelligence, have substantially improved our understanding of how earthquake sequences unfold leading to the mainshock. We examine the available seismological and geodetic evidence describing preparatory processes in 33 earthquake sequences with MW [3.2–9.0] across different tectonic and stress conditions. Our analysis reveals common patterns, and sheds light on the interplay of structural, tectonic and other boundary conditions that influence the dynamics of earthquake sequences, and hence, in the seismo-geodetic observables prior to the mainshock. We place particular emphasis on connecting observed phenomena to the underlying physical processes driving the sequences. From our findings, we propose a conceptual framework viewing earthquake preparation as a process involving several juxtaposed driving physical mechanisms on different temporal and spatial scales, jointly leading to the stress increase in the future epicenter.