Daily maximum runoff frequency analysis under non-stationary conditions due to climate change in the future period: Case study Ghareh Sou basin

Abstract

The frequency analysis of the maximum instantaneous flood is mostly based on the stationary assumption. The purpose of the present study is to compare the results of maximum instantaneous flood analysis under stationary and non-stationary conditions in Ghareh Sou basin, and also answer the question as to whether there is a difference between estimating the return period of maximum instantaneous flood in stationary and non-stationary conditions. First, the values of the temperature, wind speed, and rainfall of the study area under the two scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5 of the Hadley Centre coupled Model, version3 (HadCM3) model were downscaled. In the following, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model was utilized to generate daily runoff. For converting the daily discharge to the maximum instantaneous flood, four methods of Fuller, Sangal, Fill Steiner, and artificial neural network (ANN) were compared. Finally, the maximum instantaneous floods of the future period were introduced to the Non-stationary Extreme Value Analysis (NEVA) software. Based on the results obtained from the research, the lack of considering the non-stationary conditions in the flood frequency analysis can result in underestimating the maximum instantaneous flood, which can also provide more risks for the related hydraulic structures. HIGHLIGHTS The temperature will increase and rainfall will reduce in the future.; The results of the VIC model represent that the daily runoff in the future period will reduce compared to the past periods.; The maximum instantaneous floods under the stationary assumption are smaller than the maximum instantaneous floods under the non-stationary assumption; this difference increases by expanding the return period.;

Keywords

• climate change
• downscaling
• neva software
• non-stationary
• vic model