How a population-based cohort of men estimate lifetime risk of prostate cancer in a survey before entering a prostate cancer screening trial in Sweden?

Abstract

Objectives Investigating men’s perceived lifetime risk of prostate cancer.Design Survey-based study to men invited for prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening in the GÖTEBORG-2 trial between September 2015 and June 2020.Setting 38 775 men in the Gothenburg area, Sweden, were invited for PSA-testing and participated in a survey.Participants 17 980 men participated in PSA-testing, of whom 13 189 completed the survey. In addition, 1264 men answered the survey only.Interventions Before having the PSA-test, men answered an electronic survey and estimated their lifetime risk of receiving a prostate cancer diagnosis on a visual analogue scale from 0% to 100%.Main outcome measures The primary outcome was the median lifetime risk estimation, which was compared with Wilcoxon test to an anticipated lifetime risk of 20% (based on GÖTEBORG-1 trial). The secondary outcome was to determine factors associated with risk estimation in a multivariable linear regression model: previous prostate examination, family history, physical exercise, healthy diet, comorbidity, alcohol consumption, smoking, education level, marital status, urinary symptoms and erectile dysfunction.Results Among PSA-tested men, the median estimated lifetime risk of prostate cancer was 30% (IQR 19% to 50%), corresponding to a 10 percentage-points higher estimation compared with the anticipated risk (p<0.001). Family history of prostate cancer, moderate to severe urinary symptoms and mild to moderate erectile dysfunction were associated with >5 percentage-points higher risk estimation. Similar results were obtained for non-PSA-tested men.Conclusions Most men overestimated their prostate cancer risk which underscores the importance of providing them accurate information about prostate cancer.Trial registration number ISRCTN94604465.