Assessment of ocean analysis and forecast from an atmosphere–ocean coupled data assimilation operational system

Abstract

The development of coupled atmosphere–ocean prediction systems with utility on short-range numerical weather prediction (NWP) and ocean forecasting timescales has accelerated over the last decade. This builds on a body of evidence showing the benefit, particularly for weather forecasting, of more correctly representing the feedbacks between the surface ocean and atmosphere. It prepares the way for more unified prediction systems with the capability of providing consistent surface meteorology, wave and surface ocean products to users for whom this is important. Here we describe a coupled ocean–atmosphere system, with weakly coupled data assimilation, which was operationalised at the Met Office as part of the Copernicus Marine Environment Service (CMEMS). We compare the ocean performance to that of an equivalent ocean-only system run at the Met Office and other CMEMS products. Sea surface temperatures in particular are shown to verify better than in the ocean-only systems, although other aspects including temperature profiles and surface currents are slightly degraded. We then discuss the plans to improve the current system in future as part of the development of a “coupled NWP” system at the Met Office.