Risk Diagnostics and Management for Welfare in Regions (in the Example of the Ural Federal District)

Abstract

Welfare is one of the indicators that characterizes the functioning of socio-economic system at any level, which is influenced by many factors. It increases the importance of necessity of choice, estimating risks that affect welfare, and managing their influence. The authors view welfare in the region from two viewpoints: an individual and a territory, which implies definition and estimation of risks for each of them. The goal of the study is to estimate the risks to welfare of an individual and a territory, which means solving the following tasks: 1) defining the category ‘risk to welfare of an individual and a territory’; 2) estimating integral risks for the Ural Federal District’s territories; 3) estimating the probability of integral risk reaching critical zone. The methods of study used by the authors: indicative analysis, integration of objective function through Monte Carlo statistical trials method. The object of the study is the regions of the Ural Federal District (subjects of the Russian Federation), timeframe – 2001–2016, information mass – official data of Russian Federal State Statistics Service. Based on the calculations, the authors conclude the following: all regions of the Ural Federal District are in the high-risk zone and have low probability of reaching critical risk zone. The results can be used in managing the risks through development of roadmaps on minimization of risk and probability of aggravation. The proposed measures allow decreasing the integral risk and increasing welfare level of an individual and a territory

Keywords

• welfare of an individual and a territory
• risk
• probability
• region
• assessment method
• roadmap
• Ural Federal District