Determination of Susceptibility to the Generation of Discontinuities Related to Land Subsidence Using the Frequency Ratio Method in the City of Aguascalientes, Mexico

Abstract

Land subsidence in the Aguascalientes Valley, documented since the 1980s, has developed a large number of discontinuities that damage infrastructure. There is currently no methodology to accurately predict the site and time at which a discontinuity will occur, making it difficult to make decisions in urban planning or risk management. However, it is possible to determine the susceptibility of an area to the generation of fractures based on the factors associated with their formation. This study presents a zoning method based on the ground failure susceptibility index (GFSI) in the city of Aguascalientes, using the frequency ratio (FR) method and employing the depth of the basement, the subsidence rate, the subsidence gradient, and the groundwater level drawdown as variables. The zoning method included three categories of land subsidence susceptibility to fracturing, moderate, high, and very high, which were divided using the first (3.76) and second (4.24) quartiles of the GFSI. The zoning method was created with the discontinuities reported in 2010 and was validated with data from 2022. The results obtained show that 11.19% of the discontinuities developed between 2010 and 2022 were located in a zone of moderate susceptibility, 41.97% were located in a zone of high susceptibility, and 46.87% were located in a zone classified as having very high susceptibility.

Keywords

• ground failure
• map susceptibility
• land subsidence
• frequency ratio
• Aguascalientes Valley