HISTORICAL FACTORS OF FORMATION OF DEMOGRAPHIC BEHAVIOR OF THE POPULATION OF THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL RUSSIA IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE XX - THE BEGINNING OF THE XXI CENTURY

Abstract

Demographic studies tend to focus on the current causes of population movements. At the same time, it is forgotten that many of the current demographic problems have deep historical roots and require monitoring of relevant processes over long periods of time. An important methodological approach in the study of the historical roots of subsequent demographic processes is the construction of gender-age pyramids. With the obvious advantages of this method, its disadvantage is the reliance on census data, which were conducted over long periods of time and could not take into account important for historical and demographic analysis weather changes in fertility, mortality, natural growth. The article attempts to fill this gap, to analyze long weather series of the most important demographic indicators. The analysis has been collected using the same methodology published static data of the Russian authorities 1950-2010-ies for 5 areas of the Central Chernozem region (Belgorod, Voronezh, Kursk, Lipetsk, Tambov) and adjacent areas of South Central and Volga regions of Russia (Bryansk, Orel, Penza, Ryazan, Sarahtov, Tula): "the National economy of the RSFSR" for 1950-1990-ies, "Russian statistical Yearbook" in the 1990s, the "Demographic Yearbook of the Russian Federation" for 2000-2010-ies". The lack of information for some years on individual regions was overcome by the use of the spline modeling method. The demographic processes considered in the article are determined not only by historical factors, but also by many modern reasons. Taking into account objective factors is important for the formation of a balanced demographic policy, avoiding the formulation of unrealistic tasks and forecasts of demographic development of the regions.

Keywords

• birth rate
• natural population decline
• mortality
• demographic factors