Predicting the potential habitat suitability and distribution of “Weed-Onion” (Asphodelus tenuifolius Cavan.) in India under predicted climate change scenarios

Abstract

Recent shifts in the spectrum of weeds documented throughout the globe in various agroecosystems were purportedly associated with climate change. Consequently, it called for a more thorough investigation of weed vulnerabilities and management in the changing climate scenarios. In the present investigation, we compile geographic occurrence data of an agricultural weed Asphodelus tenuifolius Cavan. using ecospat R package and BIOMOD ensemble forecasting to analyze the existing distribution and anticipate its possible distribution in the future under future climate change scenarios. Nine different algorithms were used and implemented in biomod2 package for modelling the current potential habitat distribution of the selected species across the study region and climatic data was downloaded from WorldClim database. Ensemble modeling showed high habitat suitability of the majority of central, northern, and western Indian regions under current climatic conditions. In addition, by gaining suitable habitats in the future the target species will undergo significant increase in range change. The potential range of habitat suitability for A. tenuifolius is likely to increase from 138.73% to 190.29% in terms of Committee Averaging and 721.42%–1508% in terms of Weighted Mean under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). This ensemble modelling technique will help us to locate the places where its potential range could expand while simultaneously analysing the spatial distributions of field weeds, which may be important for the creation of cutting-edge weed control methods.

Keywords

• Asphodelus tenuifolius
• Distribution modeling
• Habitat suitability
• Representative concentration pathways
• Weed management