Untangling threat perception in international relations: an empirical analysis of threats posed by China and their implications for security discourse

Abstract

In international relations, the concept of ‘threat perception’ is the key focus in research on war, deterrence, coercion, alliances and conflict. Although detecting and measuring the concept of threat is challenging, this field of study has become increasingly critical. To represent the intangible ‘threat notion’ more tangibly, this article selects ‘China Threat’ as the security reference object, merging constructivist and Copenhagen School principles of ‘Identity,’ ‘Power,’ and ‘Intention.’ This forms the basis for constructing questionnaires. An experimental observation and questionnaire survey was conducted on master’s and doctoral students from the Republic of China (Taiwan) who had previously taken part in a large-scale decision-making simulation. The research applies a ‘quasi-experimental approach’ and ‘non-participant observation.’ The regression analysis reveals that the perception of the difference in ‘power’ and the perception of ‘harmful intent’ are relatively correlated and predictive of threat perception. In other words, when China’s military power and harmful intention become more assertive, the group’s threat perception increases. These correlation findings serve as an effective indicator for future research and measurement of ‘perceived strength of enemy threat,’ strengthening awareness of enemy threats within the group by addressing textual issues and the establishing the logic of securitization discourse.

Keywords

• Securitization
• threat perception
• identity
• power
• intention
• experimental method