Modeling of Safe Distance Between Ship Routes and Offshore Wind Farm Based on Tolerable Collision Probability

Abstract

With the continuous increase of offshore wind farms and other offshore regional buildings, the contradiction between them and the navigation safety in the densely distributed areas of offshore ship tracks is increasingly obvious. It is urgent to build a safe distance model based on the actual sea condition to reduce the mutual influence. Based on the drift distance of ships in the boundary water areas of the wind farm under the actual meteorological and hydrological conditions, as well as the tolerable collision probability, reliability model and the normal distribution trend of ships in the ship routes, and the probability model of safe distance between ship routes and wind farm is built in the end. Based on the example and the tolerable collision probability of ships, the safe distance is analyzed, the analysis results show that the calculation model can determine the safe distance according to the control requirements of the collision probability between the ship and the offshore wind farm. In addition, the collision probability and the safe distance obtained are basically consistent with the safe distance published by the local maritime authority in combination with the changes of the output results caused by the velocity difference of the ship. The model lays a theoretical foundation on offshore wind farm site selection optimization, route boundary demarcation, ship safety and maritime supervision.

Keywords

• Safe distance
• tolerable collision probability
• modeling
• offshore wind farm