Контуры глобальных трансформаций: политика, экономика, право (Oct 2019)
Africa in the Modern Model of the World Order: A Powerful Player or an Outsider?
Abstract
The article analyses the transformation of Africa’s position in the emerging new model of world economic development. The author emphasizes that until recently, Africa was assigned the role of an “outsider” of the world economy. The transition of developed countries to a postindustrial and innovative development model has further exacerbated the lagging behind of the region’s countries in the foremost areas of the economy. Other negative factors that affected the development of African economies in the second decade of the 21st century include the high dependence of the African economy on commodity exports, the slowdown of China’s growth, the socio-economic consequences of the so-called “Arab Spring” and, primarily, the destruction of Libya, the continuation of old and the emergence of new conflicts in a number of African states. Despite numerous and often successful attempts by external forces to make sure that Africa remains an object of the world economy and politics, the continent is increasingly becoming an active “subject” in international relations, and its development in the coming decades may, in our view, change its position in the new model of world development. According to forecasts, including those made by the Institute for African Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, from the 2030s, Africa is expected to turn into the most important and almost unique global strategic reserve of raw materials in the “Coming (New) Industrial Revolution” – NPR, Next (in other documents New) Industrial Revolution. The African continent today occupies leading positions in the world precisely due to those commodities that have no equivalents and are vital for the development of defense and innovative technologies of the 21st century. Other important factors in the accelerated development of Africa are the quantitative and qualitative growth of the continent’s labor potential, the expansion of consumption in the African domestic markets, the economic diversification in a number of the continent’s countries by means of increasing the share of services and industry in the GDP, and a significant improvement in the business climate as a result of better investment legislation and gradual stabilization of domestic politics. Apart from the increase in financial proceeds arriving in various forms, regional integration (including a continental free trade zone) will be a key to accelerating economic growth in the African continent, which will allow for joint and more efficient use of the potential of individual African states. Modern Africa is a dynamically growing market of labor force, consumer goods, investments, modern technologies, and science-intensive machinery. The author anticipates realization of the scenario of gradual evolution of a unified pan-African pole of global significance in the foreseeable future.
