Simuler les évolutions de l’utilisation du sol pour anticiper le futur d’un territoire

Abstract

This paper presents the critical analysis of a geoprospective approach held in 2010 in the catchment of the Yzeron River, in the Lyon metropolitan area, France. This approach combines scenarios about changes in LandUse, LandCover and territorial foresight in the context of a participatory workshop. The scenarios are built by using modelling and simulation tools. Maps of potential land use in 2030 are produced and discussed in the workshop. After a review of territorial foresight and geoprospective concepts, we detail the organization of the workshop, the elaboration of the simulation models and the results of the project. Then, we address the question of interest and limits of using LULC modeling and simulation techniques in a territorial prospective, relying on the remarks of participants and our own observations.

Keywords

• territory
• land use
• scenario
• spatial strategic foresight
• participatory workshop
• spatial land cover modelling/modelling