A mathematical model for the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 virus using the Caputo-Fabrizio operator

Abstract

The pandemic of SARS-CoV-2 virus remains a pressing issue with unpredictable characteristics which spread worldwide through human interactions. The current study is focusing on the investigation and analysis of a fractional-order epidemic model that discusses the temporal dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in a community. It is well known that symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals have a major effect on the dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 virus therefore, we divide the total population into susceptible, asymptomatic, symptomatic, and recovered groups of the population. Further, we assume that the vaccine confers permanent immunity because multiple vaccinations have commenced across the globe. The new fractional-order model for the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 virus is formulated via the Caputo-Fabrizio fractional-order approach with the maintenance of dimension during the process of fractionalization. The theory of fixed point will be used to show that the proposed model possesses a unique solution whereas the well-posedness (bounded-ness and positivity) of the fractional-order model solutions are discussed. The steady states of the model are analyzed and the sensitivity analysis of the basic reproductive number is explored. Moreover to parameterize the model a real data of SARS-CoV-2 virus reported in the Sultanate of Oman from January 1st, 2021 to May 23rd, 2021 are used. We then perform the large scale numerical findings to show the validity of the analytical work.

Keywords

• fractional-order sars-cov-2 epidemiological model
• existence and uniqueness
• bounded-ness and positivity
• steady state analysis
• sensitivity analysis
• numerical simulation