Optimizing age specific strategies of vaccination for prevention of cytomegalovirus infection in the US using agent-based simulation

Abstract

Background:: There is an urgent need to develop a cytomegalovirus (CMV) vaccine as it remains the leading cause of birth defects in the United States. While several CMV vaccine candidates are currently in late-stage clinical trials, the most effective vaccination program remains an open research question. Methods:: To take into account the critical uncertainties when evaluating the vaccine impact on both vertical (congenital) and horizontal CMV transmissions, we developed a CMV agent-based model representative of the US population and contact network structures. Results:: We evaluated 648 vaccination scenarios under various assumptions of vaccination age, vaccine efficacy, protection duration, and vaccination coverage. The optimal age of vaccination under all scenarios is shown to be during early childhood. However, a relatively modest benefit was also seen with vaccination of females of reproduction age (around age of 25) assuming near universal coverage and long vaccine-mediated protection. Conclusions:: This study highlights the important need for a pediatric vaccination program in mitigating CMV in the United States. Our model is poised to investigate further location-based vaccine effectiveness questions in future planning of both clinical trials as well as eventual program implementation.

Keywords

• Agent-based simulation
• Cytomegalovirus
• Infectious disease modeling
• Epidemiology