Applying the Theory of Reliability to the Assessment of Hazard, Risk and Safety in a Hydrologic System: A Case Study in the Upper Sola River Catchment, Poland

Abstract

River basin safety issues and hazards arising from extreme hydrological and meteorological events pose significant risks to human life and can entail economic and financial losses. In this study, the practical aspects of reliability theory linked to reliability engineering, and the associated mathematical tools used to describe technical systems, were applied to explore the structural reliability of a quasi-natural system—a portion of the Upper Sola River catchment in Poland. As part of this study, methods such as the Fault Tree Method (FTM), Event Tree Method (ETM), Risk Matrix and Ranking Method for assessing hazard, risk and losses connected with the occurrence of such events are suggested to improve flood risk management and enhance the capacity to safeguard against such events by improving current flood protection protocols in accordance with EC Flood Directives.

Keywords

• hydrologic system
• river basin
• water resources management
• safety
• security
• reliability
• risk
• hazard
• threat
• losses
• flood
• flooding
• extreme events
• FTM
• ETM
• risk matrix
• ranking method
• upper Sola River
• Poland