Qixiang keji (Oct 2024)
Research on Guangzhou Litchi Meteorological Index Insurance Product
Abstract
This study uses litchi from Conghua and Zengcheng regions in Guangzhou as insurance targets, and combines the meteorological disasters throughout the entire growth period of litchi to design litchi meteorological index insurance products and verify insurance payout rates. Based on the litchi yield data and historical meteorological data, litchi yield reduction rate models are structured. Based on the correlation between meteorological factors and yield reduction rate, key meteorological indicators that affect litchi yield are screened. Further, the distribution of litchi meteorological index is fitted, the insurance pure premium rate and the insurance amount per unit area for different meteorological index grades which trigger compensation are determined. The meteorological index is set to 2 to 4 levels; different weather index levels of the amount of compensation are determined; and the rationality of compensation rates at different time scales is verified. In this study, the time scale of litchi yield and planting area data is from 2001 to 2020, while the time scale of meteorological data is from 1959 to 2020. The results show that the precipitation index at the flowering stage of litchi in Conghua district, the low-temperature index at the heading stage, and the precipitation index at the ripening stage of litchi in Zengcheng district are the key meteorological indicators that lead to the reduction of litchi yield in the two regions mentioned above, respectively. When the cumulative precipitation in Conghua district reaches 350 mm at the flowering stage of litchi, the minimum temperature is 3.3 ℃ at the heading stage of litchi, and the cumulative daily rainfall of ≥100 mm at the ripening stage of litchi lasts 2 days in Zengcheng district, a claim is triggered. The premium amounts corresponding to different levels of three meteorological indices are between 448-2582 yuan/hm2, 522-2567 yuan/hm2, 1403-3284 yuan/hm2, respectively. The compensation ratios for different meteorological indices and levels are between 7%-10%, 7%-10%, and 10%-12%, respectively. The average payout rates of Conghua district and Zengcheng district at three times in 10, 20 and 30 years are 77.0%, 69.6% and 63.7% respectively, which is consistent with the requirement of 65%-75% of the insurance company’s claim rate. The designed insurance product of Litchi Meteorological Index can provide a reference for a new round of policy agricultural insurance in Guangzhou, and provide technical support for litchi farmers to disperse and transfer the risk of meteorological disasters.
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