MULTIPLICATIVE EFFECTS OF HYBRID THREATS*

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to develop methodological approaches to assess the likelihood of multiplicative effects of hybrid threat combinations based on their systematization according to the key areas of hybrid confrontation. Methodology. Methods of analysis and synthesis are used to identify the key areas of hybrid confrontation; methods of abstraction and generalization - to justify the multiplicative effects of implementing combinations of hybrid threats; method of mathematical modeling – to formalize the criterion of effectiveness of various hybrid aggression tools. The research is based on scientific publications, materials of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine and European analytical services. Results of the study. It has been proved that the transformation of modern interstate conflicts takes place in the direction of acquiring by them signs of hybridization, provided that it is understood as a process of using various means of pressure, predominantly of non-military nature. It is argued that the urgent task in the context of counteracting hybrid threats is to assess the probability of multiplicative effects from the implementation of their combinations. The military, economic and information spheres have been identified as key dimensions of the hybrid confrontation. The specifics of hybrid threats in the economic sphere are those that would allow the country initiating the aggression to disguise its participation in the conflict, and the target country to obtain critical resources for the development of its economic system. The essence of synergy and cumulation effects is considered and their interpretation in the coordinates of hybrid warfare is given. The relevant effects are defined as multiplicative, that is, those that have a multiplier effect, providing accumulation (accumulation) and synergy (amplification) from the implementation of threats in different areas of hybrid confrontation. Practical implications. Assessing the likelihood of the multiplier effect of a variety of hybrid threats will focus on countering those combinations of threats that can have a significant impact on the political and economic system of the state of hybrid aggression. Value/originality. Justification and formalization of conditions for obtaining multiplicative (cumulative and synergistic) effects from the use of various hybrid confrontation tools.