Megatrend Revija (Jan 2019)
Europe 2020: The new gas crises?
Abstract
This paper presents and has predicted events after 11 years since the last European gas crisis. The aim of the work is the projection and events taking place and that is indicating the possibility of facing Europe with shortages or with less supply of this strategically important energy source that could lead to natural-gas reductions and influence the prices of this energy-generating product and therefore to the economy of Europe and the world. The countries of Europe actively implement measures to reduce the risk of short-ages of gas as an energy source. The annexation of the Crimean peninsula, the complex relationship between Russia and Ukraine, the European Union and sanctions to Russia, the state of interdependence for distribution and continuous disputes are operatively specific individual factors in this paper. The risk of shortage or less gas supply is threatened if Gazprom halts delivery to Naftogaz (Ukraine), and the basis of the forecast is the expiration of the ten-year gas supply and distribution agreement that ends on December 31, 2019. Negotiations on a new contract are being carried out with the mediator -the European Commission. Gazprom diversifies distribution by construction and completion of North Stream 2 in the North of Europe and the Turkish stream in the south of Europe. The research methods used by the author are: with the methods of analysis and synthesis of the observed processes and phenomena in connection with the wider problems that occur in the region the aim is to use the proven hypotheses from the personal doctoral dissertation, the usual statistical methods, the abstraction and concretization method and the description of all relevant events. The result of the research can be the basis for a great knowledge in this area, contributing to the understanding of the gas industry as well as its further development and strategy in the region. The conclusion is that the diversification of gas supply is necessary for the integrity and security of the European Union and for the further development and growth of the GDP.
