Prediction of Wells Performance and Producing Life Applying Production Decline Analysis

Abstract

Analyzing the production data became a common method in modern reservoir engineering practice, which is used to dynamically indicate the reservoir's characteristics, predict long-term performance, and determine the reservoir's criteria through daily production analysis. Input data required to analyze production data is production rate and sometimes flow pressure (if any). The decline curve analysis method analyzes well production data to history matching and forecasts the future well performance. The decline curve analysis (DCA) method is a non-linear regression method for production history matching and prediction. In this study, we used the DCA method to analyze eight oil wells' production data produced from the Mishrif reservoir in an Iraqi oil field. This work dealt with the prediction of the reservoir’s performance and future production rate using the DCA method tool integrated with IPM- MBAL software. Production decline rate trend analysis was performed by generating standard curves utilizing exponential, hyperbolic, and harmonic decline model equations based on historical production data. Afterward, a production forecast model was built for production to 2025. The producing life for each well at the economic flow rate (300 bbl/Day) is estimated. Results from the production forecast showed that the exponential and hyperbolic decline models yielded 54.057 MMSTB and 80.73 MMSTB, respectively. The decline rates for hyperbolic and exponential models till 2025 were estimated as 4614.25 STB/Day and 1153.1STB/Day.