Bìznes Inform (Aug 2021)
Foreign Investment as a Potential Factor of Overcoming the Poverty Trap for Ukraine
Abstract
The analysis of the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on the rate of economic growth on the example of China and Ukraine is carried out. It is shown that foreign direct investment has a positive impact, but this is not the only factor that determines economic growth. Apart from the attracted foreign investment, the country must have developed institutions that will protect foreign capital from both the internal political and the external risks. Such an institutional environment will contribute to the growth of foreign direct investment and the effectiveness of their implementation. It is shown that at the same levels of foreign direct investment per capita – investments in China tend to grow steadily and less volatility. At the same time, foreign investment in Ukraine is unstable and highly dependent on macroeconomic factors, such as global economic crises and armed aggression of the neighboring country. To determine the impact of foreign investments on the pace of economic growth, the article used a regression and correlation apparatus. A cross-correlation function was used to assess the lagging impact of foreign investment on economic growth. The novelty of this publication is that by using correlation analysis, a significant difference in the lags of FDI impact on the GDP growth rates for the economies of Ukraine and China has been proved. It is found that Ukraine is characterized by a rapid short-term response to foreign direct investment with zero and single lag, while for the Chinese economy this response is dissolved over time. The main stagnation factors in Ukraine include the following: practical absence of the possibility of direct investment of the population into the country’s economy (underdeveloped stock market), significant political (risks of loss of property), macroeconomic and corruption risks.
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