Зовнішні справи (Oct 2021)
Structuring the Analysis of International Conflicts and Threats
Abstract
This paper considers the theoretical and practical approaches to the analysis of pressing and sensitive issues of international life, such as conflicts and threats in international relations. Their current multipolar model, as well as the previous bipolar one, is described by an expansive range of historically developed and new hybrid conflicts occurring in Europe and almost all parts of the world, which in themselves pose serious regional and global threats or result from such exacerbations. In a modernised political-scientific epistemological key, this article raises the question of the need to isolate and analyse the current diversity of international challenges, threats, and conflicts and their typification and structuring. For this reason, it is proposed to achieve greater specificity in the analysis of conflict situations and in understanding the possibilities of obtaining a certain geopolitical result from their settlement, namely in the confrontation between Ukraine and Russia. Thematically, using examples from world and Ukrainian diplomatic practice, the study presents analytical approaches to the issue of international threats based on the theory of international relations and relevant research in expert and academic circles on war, peace, and conflict studies. The methods of application of the Copenhagen School of Securitisation Theory, the Normandy Index, the Concept of Ontological Security, etc. are defined as the most appropriate and promising among others. Conflict structuring models based on value approaches in five areas, and different levels of crisis and threat analysis are also considered. The latter is proposed to expand from three to four levels of analysis or targeted “dilution of 4 shelves” of a particular situation, with variable or combined choice of level of consideration and solution. An in-depth understanding of current conflicts and threats should stimulate international dialogue and contribute to a better understanding of international security and the search for solutions to the current conflicts
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