An Integrated Framework for Infectious Disease Control Using Mathematical Modeling and Deep Learning

Abstract

Infectious diseases are a major global public health concern. Precise modeling and prediction methods are essential to develop effective strategies for disease control. However, data imbalance and the presence of noise and intensity inhomogeneity make disease detection more challenging. Goal: In this article, a novel infectious disease pattern prediction system is proposed by integrating deterministic and stochastic model benefits with the benefits of the deep learning model. Results: The combined benefits yield improvement in the performance of solution prediction. Moreover, the objective is also to investigate the influence of time delay on infection rates and rates associated with vaccination. Conclusions: In this proposed framework, at first, the global stability at disease free equilibrium is effectively analysed using Routh-Haurwitz criteria and Lyapunov method, and the endemic equilibrium is analysed using non-linear Volterra integral equations in the infectious disease model. Unlike the existing model, emphasis is given to suggesting a model that is capable of investigating stability while considering the effect of vaccination and migration rate. Next, the influence of vaccination on the rate of infection is effectively predicted using an efficient deep learning model by employing the long-term dependencies in sequential data. Thus making the prediction more accurate.

Keywords

• Migration
• vaccination
• stochastic perturbation
• Lyapunov stability
• volterra integral equation
• long short term memory (LSTM)