Standardising the assessment of caesarean birth using an oxford caesarean prediction score for mothers with gestational diabetes

Abstract

Abstract Mothers with gestational diabetes are at increased risk of giving birth by caesarean section. A standardised assessment method may help to guide in recommendations in planning caesarean birth. We analysed 203 women with gestational diabetes managed in a single centre and developed an aggregate heuristic risk score. Among 155 women who had not had a previous caesarean birth, five risk factors (previous birth, weight gain during pregnancy, mother's height, and glycated haemoglobin and fasting blood glucose results at the beginning of pregnancy) were found associated with primary caesarean birth. Risk of primary caesarean birth in low‐risk women (score 0–1) was 13.8%, medium‐risk (score 2–3) 24.5% and high risk (score ≥ 4) 66.7%. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) for primary caesarean birth prediction is 0.726 ± 0.003. Machine learning models were then deployed on 97 patients to explore the role of temporal blood glucose in predicting caesarean birth, achieving an AUROC of 0.857 ± 0.008. In conclusion, Oxford caesarean prediction score could help clinicians counselling women with gestational diabetes about their individual risk of primary caesarean birth. Temporal blood glucose measurements may improve the prediction subject to further validation.