Analysis of Small-Scale Spatial Variability of Fog at Paris Charles de Gaulle Airport

Abstract

The small-scale variability of fog over Paris-CdG airport was explored by using the twelve visibility measurements installed on runways. The variability inside this sub-kilometre area is significant for fog, whatever the studied fog characteristics. These results confirm that about 50% of fog is thin and heterogeneous at the airport scale. This study indicated that one point of measurement may be far from the representativeness of sub-kilometre scale area and can create problems when used for verifying numerical models. The fog characteristics cannot be captured by a local measurement of visibility, and it is not possible to deduce fog extension at the local scale from a local measurement, even for low visibility such as for LVP cases (Low Visibility Procedures). This work demonstrated with a perfect forecast framework that a large dispersion of forecast scores could be obtained when using one observation at the local-scale due to representativeness errors of visibility measurements. This dispersion has the same order of magnitude as the current NWP forecast quality of fog. An attempt to quantify the scale heterogeneity of fog was made using the Gini index. This index has allowed highlighting the appearance of waves during the dissipation phase of fog.

Keywords

• fog
• spatial variability
• representativeness errors