Changes in the Seasonal Cycle of Heatwaves, Dry and Wet Spells over West Africa Using CORDEX Simulations

Abstract

This study analyzes the potential response of the seasonal cycle of heatwaves (HWDI) and dry (CDD) and wet (CWD) spell indices over West Africa for the near- (2031–2060) and the far-future periods (2071–2100) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios using Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) simulations. Despite the fact that some relative biases (an underestimation of 30% for CDD, an overestimation of about 60% for CWD, and an overestimation of about 50% for HWDI) exist, during the historical period (1976–2005) in general, the CORDEX simulations and their ensemble mean outperform the seasonal variability in the above-mentioned indices over three defined subregions of West Africa (i.e., the Gulf of Guinea and Western and Eastern Sahel). They show high correlation coefficients (0.9 in general) and less RMSE. They project an increase (about 10 and 20 days) in heatwave days for both the near- and far-future periods over the whole West African region under both RCP scenarios. In addition, projections indicate that the Sahel regions will experience a decrease (about 5 days) in wet spell days from March to November, while in the Gulf of Guinea, a decrease (about 3 days) is projected throughout the year, except in the CCCLM simulation, which indicates an increase (about 5 days) during the retreat phase of the monsoon (October to December). Our results also highlight an increase (about 80%) in dry spells over the Sahel regions that are more pronounced during the March–November period, while over the Gulf of Guinea, an increase (about 40%) is projected over the entire year. Moreover, the months of increasing dry spells and decreasing wet spells coincide, suggesting that countries in these regions could be simultaneously exposed to dry seasons associated with a high risk of drought and heatwaves under future climate conditions.

Keywords

• climate change
• climate extremes
• RCP4.5
• RCP8.5
• forcing scenarios
• regional climate model