The attributable fraction of respiratory syncytial virus among patients of different ages with influenza-like illness and severe acute respiratory illness in a high HIV prevalence setting, South Africa, 2012-2016

Abstract

Objectives: The detection of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in upper airway samples does not necessarily infer causality of illness. We aimed to calculate the attributable fraction (AF) of RSV in clinical syndromes across age groups. Methods: Using unconditional logistic regression models, we estimated the AF of RSV-associated influenza-like illness (ILI) and severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) cases by comparing RSV detection prevalence among ILI and SARI cases to those of healthy controls in South Africa, 2012-2016. The analysis, stratified by HIV serostatus, was conducted in the age categories <1, 1-4, 5-24, 25-44, 45-64, and ≥65 years. Results: We included 12,048 individuals: 2687 controls, 5449 ILI cases, and 5449 SARI cases. RSV-AFs for ILI were significant in <1, 1-4, 5-and 24, 25-44-year age groups: 84.9% (95% confidence interval [CI] 69.3-92.6%), 74.6% (95% CI 53.6-86.0%), 60.8% (95% CI 21.4-80.5%) and 64.1% (95% CI 14.9-84.9%), respectively. Similarly, significant RSV-AFs for SARI were 95.3% (95% CI 91.1-97.5) and 83.4% (95% CI 70.9-90.5) in the <1 and 1-4-year age groups respectively. In HIV-infected persons, RSV was significantly associated with ILI cases vs controls in individuals aged 5-44 years. Conclusion: High RSV-AFs in young children confirm RSV detection is associated with severe respiratory illness in South African children, specifically infants. These estimates will assist with refining burden estimates and cost-effectiveness models.

Keywords

• Attributable fraction
• Respiratory syncytial virus
• Burden of disease