Day-Ahead Hourly Solar Irradiance Forecasting Based on Multi-Attributed Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Network

Abstract

Solar irradiance forecasting is fundamental and essential for commercializing solar energy generation by overcoming output variability. Accurate forecasting depends on historical solar irradiance data, correlations between various meteorological variables (e.g., wind speed, humidity, and cloudiness), and influences between the weather contexts of spatially adjacent regions. However, existing studies have been limited to spatiotemporal analysis of a few variables, which have clear correlations with solar irradiance (e.g., sunshine duration), and do not attempt to establish atmospheric contextual information from a variety of meteorological variables. Therefore, this study proposes a novel solar irradiance forecasting model that represents atmospheric parameters observed from multiple stations as an attributed dynamic network and analyzes temporal changes in the network by extending existing spatio-temporal graph convolutional network (ST-GCN) models. By comparing the proposed model with existing models, we also investigated the contributions of (i) the spatial adjacency of the stations, (ii) temporal changes in the meteorological variables, and (iii) the variety of variables to the forecasting performance. We evaluated the performance of the proposed and existing models by predicting the hourly solar irradiance at observation stations in the Korean Peninsula. The experimental results showed that the three features are synergistic and have correlations that are difficult to establish using single-aspect analysis.

Keywords

• solar irradiance forecasting
• graph neural network
• spatio-temporal graph convolutional network
• multivariate spatio-temporal analysis
• weather forecasting