Multi-Hazard Susceptibility Assessment Using the Analytical Hierarchy Process and Frequency Ratio Techniques in the Northwest Himalayas, Pakistan

Abstract

Globally, natural hazards have become more destructive in recent times because of rapid urban development and exposure. Consequently, significant human life loss, the damage to property and infrastructure, and the collapse of the environment directed the attention of geoscientists to control the consequences and risk management in relation to geo-hazards. In this research, an effort was made to produce a compound map, geo-visualizing the susceptibility of multi-hazards, to select suitable sites for sustainable future development and other economic activities in the region. Muzaffarabad District was chosen as a case research area due to the high magnitude of hydro-meteorological and geological hazards. On the one hand, both selected geo-hazard inventories were developed using the field survey and remote sensing data. The subjective and objective weight of all the causative factors and their classes were calculated using the assembled geospatial techniques, such as the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Frequency Ratio (FR) in the Geographic Information System (GIS). The results reveal that the most suitable areas are distributed in the southern and northwestern parts, which can be used for future sustainable development and other economic activities. In contrast, the eastern and western regions, including Muzaffarabad City, are within high and very susceptibility zones. Finally, more than 50% of the land area is located in very low and low susceptibility zones. The validation of the proposed model was checked by using three different techniques: the Receiver Operative Characteristic (ROC) curve, Seed Cell Area Index (SCAI), and Frequency Ratio (FR). Both ROCs, the Success Rate Curve (SRC) and the Predictive Rate Curve (PRC), showed the goodness of fit for both the selected geo-hazards: landslides (81.3%) and floods (93.2%), at 80.1% and 91.7%, respectively. All the validation techniques showed good fitness for both the individual and multi-hazard maps. The proposed model sets a baseline for policy implementation for all the stakeholders to minimize the risk and sustainable future development in areas of high frequent geo-hazards.

Keywords

• multi-hazard
• susceptibility
• multi-criteria analysis
• geospatial techniques
• Himalayas