مدیریت بیابان (Nov 2023)
Analyzing the Trend of The Temperature Parameters Related to The Central Plateau of Iran Using a Time Series of Satellite Data
Abstract
IntroductionThe temperature of the earth has been rising by about 0.74 degrees Celsius over the past century. A gradual increase in the average annual temperature has been reported by many researchers worldwide, while other reports suggest a decrease in this parameter. The assumption is that there will be more areas of the world experiencing higher temperatures. The climate changes are effectively represented by temperature changes, which is considered one of the main indicators in climate studies. The chemical composition of the atmosphere has changed because of the increase in human industrial activities, so it is responsible for unprecedented changes in the global climate in the past century. The increase in greenhouse gas concentration is the cause of this change. The evidence indicates that the increase in atmospheric gas concentration has caused a significant increase in global temperature. The use of thermal data from sensors is widely used in the study of terrestrial phenomena, as indicated by many studies. The temperature of the earth's surface is directly and indirectly linked to all human activities. It is still not possible to calculate the temperature of the earth's surface with perfect and accurate methods, but some sensors with suitable temporal, spectral, and spatial performance are able to take photos of the entire surface of the Earth. The study is more important due to the fact that various species of animals, such as Jebeer (belonging to the Bovidae), are exposed to climate changes in arid and desert areas. Due to its impact on humans, other creatures, and the entire environment, it is imperative to pay attention to climate change nowadays. In this regard, the main aim of the current study is to evaluate the LST (Land Surface Temperature) trends, changes, and temperature threats of the land surface in the Central Plateau of Iran. Time series remote sensing data of the MODIS (MOD11A2) sensor and Terra satellite, in 8 days with spatial resolution of 1km from 2002 to 2018 have been used. Material and Methods The current study has been focused on the central plateau of Iran. The central plateau of Iran lies within the arid lands belt of the northern hemisphere. The current study has been attempting to extract exact information from the images by employing specific techniques. To achieve this goal, the MOD11A2 product of Terra satellite MODIS sensor, the trend of temperature changes and time series construction of the significance of Man Kendall methods and linear correlation parameters such as maximum monthly temperature, maximum annually temperature based on maximum monthly temperature, median monthly temperature, maximum annually temperature based on median monthly temperature, minimum monthly temperature, minimum annually temperature for daily and nightly temperature were used in TerrSet software and Earth Trends Modeler section to extract significant increasing and decreasing areas. After identifying some parts of provinces with significant temperatures based on analysis and results, we can identify the vital numerical value of the temperature in each pixel of those significant parts in the next stage. This can be achieved by utilizing the difference between the final temperature and the initial temperature. Trend analysis was used to simulate daily and nightly temperature changes for parameters of maximum monthly temperature, maximum annually temperature based on maximum monthly temperature, median monthly temperature, maximum annually temperature based on median monthly temperature, minimum monthly temperature and minimum annual temperature. Results and DiscussionDaily temperature data in the Central Plateau of Iran, which includes monthly minimum temperature, annual minimum temperature, monthly maximum temperature, annual maximum temperature based on monthly maximum temperature, monthly median temperature and annual maximum temperature based on monthly median temperature, common in Semnan and Isfahan provinces, showed a significant increase in linear correlation according to the results. In Isfahan province, the linear correlation decreased significantly between the maximum annual temperature based on the maximum monthly temperature and the median monthly temperature. There was no significant trend in other provinces. The linear correlation between temperature data in Isfahan and Semnan provinces, including the minimum monthly, minimum annual, maximum annual, and median monthly temperature, decreased significantly. The linear correlation between average annual temperature, average monthly temperature, maximum annual temperature determined by maximum monthly temperature, average monthly temperature, and maximum annual temperature determined by median monthly temperature increased significantly in Yazd and Isfahan provinces. No significant trends were observed in other provinces. To estimate the amount and approximate number of significant increases and decreases, simulations of temperature changes were conducted. The range and approximate range of numbers for significant increase and decrease in temperature were calculated in degrees Celsius. In all analyses, the parts with higher temperatures had a reddish color. The intensity of the red color increased as the temperature increased, and as the temperature decreased, the red color became fainter and turned blue. The central plateau of Iran recorded a maximum temperature of 44C°and a minimum temperature of -7C°according to this study. The central plateau of Iran has three main provinces, which include Isfahan, Semnan, and Yazd. Considering the temperatures mentioned for these three provinces, the temperatures obtained from this study are very similar, which means that the conducted study is approved to a large extent. Animals are considered to be at risk due to temperature changes. Future research should emphasize the impact of climate change and temperature increase on the living conditions of various animals, particularly those found on the central plateau of Iran.
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