Review of Recent Progress in Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting and Expression of Uncertainties

Abstract

The Ninth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-9) took place in Hawaii, USA in December 2018. This review paper was presented at the Workshop under the Tropical Cyclone Track topic. The forecasting of tropical cyclone (TC) track has seen significant improvements in recent decades both by numerical weather prediction models and by regional warning centres who issue forecasts having made use of these models and other forecasting techniques. Heming and Goerss (2010) gave an overview of forecasting techniques and models available for TC forecasting, including evidence of the improvement in performance over the years. However, the models and techniques used for TC forecasting have continued to develop in the last decade. This presentation gives an updated overview of many of the numerical weather prediction models and other techniques used for TC track prediction. It includes recent performance statistics both by the models and the regional warning centres. Keywords: Tropical Cyclone, World Meteorological Organization Workshop, Numerical Models, Track, Forecasting