Logistic risk assessment in distribution infrastructure of medicines produced in the Ural Federal District

Abstract

The article describes the results of structural-functional analysis of medicines distribution system in the Ural Federal District (Ural FD). The structure of material flow is heterogeneous in the indicator of logistics channels diversification: the share of trade turnover at federal distributors varies from 17.2 to 100%. There was also an increase in the share of the federal distribution with an increase in the cost of the medication. Methodical approach to risk assessment of pharmaceutical distribution logistics in the Ural FD on the basis of commercial and logistic risk multiplier has been developed and tested. Mathematical modeling of the federal suppliers’ demand for medicines produced in the Urals and the supply of Ural manufacturers with medicines was carried out. Based on the obtained results, methods of reducing the risks of distribution logistics are proposed; in particular, diversification of distribution channels in the range of selling prices of producers excl.VAT from 600 to 800 rubles per package, including by attracting Ural state unitary enterprises with a license for wholesale pharmaceutical activity. In addition, active promotion of expensive medications (more than 700 rubles) is recommended to reduce risks in their distribution and demand increase of federal distributors that will reduce the cost of medications and create additional availability for geriatric use.