Modelling Climate Suitability for Rainfed Maize Cultivation in Kenya Using a Maximum Entropy (MaxENT) Approach

Abstract

Climate change and variability are projected to alter the geographic suitability of lands for crop cultivation. In many developing countries, such as Kenya, information on the mean changes in climate is limited. Therefore, in this study, we model the current and future changes in areas suitable for rainfed maize production in the country using a maximum entropy (MaxENT) model. Maize is by far a major staple food crop in Kenya. We used maize occurrence location data and bioclimatic variables for two climatic scenarios-Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 from two general circulation models (HadGEM2-ES and CCSM4) for 2070. The study identified the annual mean temperature, annual precipitation and the mean temperature of the wettest quarter as the major variables that affect the distribution of maize. Simulation results indicate an average increase of unsuitable areas of between 1.9−3.9% and a decrease of moderately suitable areas of 14.6−17.5%. The change in the suitable areas is an increase of between 17−20% and in highly suitable areas of 9.6% under the climatic scenarios. The findings of this study are of utmost importance to the country as they present an opportunity for policy makers to develop appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies required to sustain maize production under future climates.

Keywords

• climate change
• maize
• geographic suitability
• bioclimatic variables
• maxent