Risk Assessment of Landslide Collapse Disasters along National Highways Based on Information Quantity and Random Forest Coupling Methods: A Case Study of the G331 National Highway

Abstract

Based on the data from two field surveys in 2015 and 2022, this paper calculates the weight of values using the entropy weight method and the variation coefficient method, and evaluates risk using the information quantity method. The information quantities of four levels of criteria (hazards, exposure, vulnerability, emergency responses, and capability of recovery) were extracted and inputted into a random forest model. After optimizing the hyperparameters of the random forest using GridSearchCV, the risk assessment was performed again. Finally, the accuracy of the two evaluation results was verified using an ROC curve, and the model with the higher AUC value was selected to create a risk map. Compared with previous studies, this paper considers the factors of emergency responses and recovery capability, which makes the risk assessment more comprehensive. Our findings show that the evaluation results based on the coupling model are more accurate than the evaluation results of the information method, as the coupling model had an AUC value of 0.9329. After considering the indices of emergency responses and capability of recovery, the risk level of the highest-risk area in the study area decreased.

Keywords

• collapse
• national highway
• risk assessment
• random forest
• information quantity method