Gap filling of turbulent heat fluxes over rice–wheat rotation croplands using the random forest model

Abstract

This study investigated the accuracy of the random forest (RF) model in gap filling the sensible (H) and latent heat (LE) fluxes, by using the observation data collected at a site over rice–wheat rotation croplands in Shouxian County of eastern China from 15 July 2015 to 24 April 2019. Firstly, the variable significance of the machine learning (ML) model's five input variables, including the net radiation (Rn), wind speed (WS), temperature (T), relative humidity (RH), and air pressure (P), was examined, and it was found that Rn accounted for 78 % and 76 % of the total variable significance in H and LE calculating, respectively, showing that it was the most important input variable. Secondly, the RF model's accuracy with the five-variable (Rn, WS, T, RH, P) input combination was evaluated, and the results showed that the RF model could reliably gap fill the H and LE with mean absolute errors (MAEs) of 5.88 and 20.97 W m−2, and root mean square errors (RMSEs) of 10.67 and 29.46 W m−2, respectively. Thirdly, four-variable input combinations were tested, and it was found that the best input combination was (Rn, WS, T, P) by removing RH from the input list, and its MAE values of H and LE were reduced by 12.65 % and 7.12 %, respectively. At last, through the Taylor diagram, H and LE gap-filling accuracies of the RF model, the support vector machine (SVM) model, the k nearest-neighbor (KNN) model, and the gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) model were intercompared, and the statistical metrics showed that RF was the most accurate for both H and LE gap filling, while the LR and KNN model performed the worst for H and LE gap filling, respectively.