Indonesian National Mortality Rates using the Whittaker-Henderson Graduation Method

Abstract

In this paper, we aim to present a graph depicting the quantified mortality rates for the entire population of Indonesia, derived from the 2019 World Health Organization (WHO) mortality data for Indonesia. First, the mortality rates which consisted of five-year age groups were interpolated to determine the rates for each individual age. Next, these rates were extrapolated to extend the data from age 85 up to age 110. The resulting crude rates were adjusted with the Whittaker-Henderson smoothing technique by utilizing Python and MS Excel. The refined results were then compared to the insured lives from the fourth Indonesian Mortality Rates Table (TMI IV). This assessment supplied the government with insights to help shape health policies and inform economic forecasts. The results indicated that male mortality rates were higher than those of females, although no significant difference was observed among the younger generation. On the contrary, mortality rates of old people were significantly greater compared to the insured lives which was due to WHO’s limited data availability and more comprehensive data collection process, compared to TMI IV’s insured lives through the underwriting process.

Keywords

• mortality rates
• whittaker-henderson graduation method
• indonesia
• world health organization.