AIS Data Driven Ship Behavior Modeling in Fairways: A Random Forest Based Approach

Abstract

The continuous growth of global trade and maritime transport has significantly heightened the challenges of managing ship traffic in port waters, particularly within fairways. Effective traffic management in these channels is crucial not only for ensuring navigational safety but also for optimizing port efficiency. A deep understanding of ship behavior within fairways is essential for effective traffic management. This paper applies machine learning techniques, including Decision Tree, Random Forest, and Gradient Boosting Regression, to model and analyze the behavior of various types of ships at specific moments within fairways. The study focuses on predicting four key behavioral parameters: latitude, longitude, speed, and heading. The experimental results reveal that the Random Forest model achieves adjusted R2 scores of 0.9999 for both longitude and latitude, 0.9957 for speed, and 0.9727 for heading. All three models perform well in accurately predicting ship positions at different times, with the Random Forest model particularly excelling in speed and heading predictions. It effectively captures the behavior of ships within fairways and provides accurate predictions for different types and sizes of vessels, especially in terms of speed and heading variations as they approach or leave berths. This model offers valuable support for predicting ship behavior, enhancing ship traffic management, optimizing port scheduling, and detecting anomalies.

Keywords

• AIS data
• ship behavior
• fairway
• random forest
• trajectory prediction