Projecting the Potential Distribution of <i>Glossina</i> <i>morsitans</i> (Diptera: Glossinidae) under Climate Change Using the MaxEnt Model

Abstract

Glossina morsitans is a vector for Human African Trypanosomiasis (HAT), which is mainly distributed in sub-Saharan Africa at present. Our objective was to project the historical and future potentially suitable areas globally and explore the influence of climatic factors. The maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) was utilized to evaluate the contribution rates of bio-climatic factors and to project suitable habitats for G. morsitans. We found that Isothermality and Precipitation of Wettest Quarter contributed most to the distribution of G. morsitans. The predicted potentially suitable areas for G. morsitans under historical climate conditions would be 14.5 million km2, including a large area of Africa which is near and below the equator, small equatorial regions of southern Asia, America, and Oceania. Under future climate conditions, the potentially suitable areas are expected to decline by about −5.38 ± 1.00% overall, under all shared socioeconomic pathways, compared with 1970–2000. The potentially suitable habitats of G. morsitans may not be limited to Africa. Necessary surveillance and preventive measures should be taken in high-risk regions.

Keywords

• tsetse fly
• suitability
• potentially suitable habitat