Investigating the inter-annual precipitation changes of Iran

Abstract

Precipitation is an important factor in the management of a variety of agricultural and industrial projects. This study investigated the temporal-spatial change of inter-annual precipitation of Iran from 1977 to 2007 by using the APHRODITE precipitation database. Statistical methods were applied, such as spatial auto-correlation, Global Moran's index, Local Moran's I index, and hotspots to acquire the variations in precipitation. The highest spatial anomalies belong to September (75.26) and October (45.02), based on the Dispersion index. Also, the size of the largest cluster of Iran's precipitation clusters is developed during winter, cited by the index's outputs, which indicates the relative regularity of Iran's precipitation. The results of the spatial statistics showed that inter-annual precipitation changes in Iran have an upward cluster model. The results of the Global Moran statistics showed that September, with the lowest number (0.712114), has the highest spatial precipitation anomalies throughout the year in Iran. Meanwhile, precipitation has a positive spatial autocorrelation on the Caspian Sea shores and western and south-western parts of the country (mainly Zagros highlands) and a negative spatial autocorrelation in parts of the central and south-eastern areas based on the Local Moran index and hotspots. HIGHLIGHTS This is the first research into this subject in terms of methodology in Iran.; The method of geo statistics can be applied in other regions in the Middle East.; This paper investigates rainfall changes during the last half-century.; This research can contribute to the knowledge of climate in this part of the world.; This research also can provide information on rainfall and water as a major problem in arid regions.;

Keywords

• aphrodite
• global and local moran
• iran
• precipitation
• spatial autocorrelation