Short‐term passenger flow prediction for rail transit based on improved particle swarm optimization algorithm

Abstract

Abstract The subjectivity of selecting training parameters is an important factor affecting the accuracy of short‐term passenger flow prediction of rail transit by long short‐term memory (LSTM) neural network. In order to improve the prediction accuracy, an improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO) algorithm is proposed to optimize the LSTM. The size of the learning factor of the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is controlled by dynamic adjustment method to improve the global optimization and convergence ability of the algorithm. The number of hidden layer nodes, learning rate and iteration times of the LSTM are optimized by IPSO. The passenger flow data of Dongjiekou station of Fuzhou Metro Line 1 are selected for verification, and the proposed model is compared with the traditional prediction model. The results show that the LSTM optimized by the improved particle swarm optimization algorithm can effectively predict the short‐term passenger flow of rail transit. Compared with the PSO‐LSTM model, the root mean square error predicted by the IPSO‐LSTM model decreases by 10.87% in the peak period and by 26% in the off‐peak period. The results can provide theoretical and technical support for the optimization of rail transit operation scheme.

Keywords

• neural nets
• particle swarm optimisation
• prediction theory
• rail transportation