Impact of meteorological drought on agriculture production at different scales in Punjab, Pakistan

Abstract

The present study aimed to quantify the impacts of the meteorological drought on the production of maize crops, using district-level observed precipitation and yield data of 21 districts across Punjab, Pakistan from 2001 to 2020. The overall analysis showed that the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) effectively reflects the variations in drought characteristics in Punjab on spatiotemporal scales. It also resulted that in south Punjab, the maize yield was negatively affected by the meteorological drought, and yield was sensitive to short-term (1 and 3 months) drought during the critical growth period of the crop. The overall analysis depicted that the meteorological drought was associated with about 27% of overall yield variations. Moreover, all of the southern districts and few districts from Central Punjab were becoming increasingly sensitive to meteorological drought where significant spatial variations in drought effects and sensitivity exist over time. Conclusively, this study showed a spatiotemporal pattern of drought and its impact on maize yield, indicating that the districts where variability in maize production was significantly associated with drought and recommend adoption of the management strategies and mitigation measures. HIGHLIGHTS Extreme climate events like drought can cause the greatest impacts especially in agronomic fields.; Agricultural yield is sensitive to short-term drought during the critical growth period of the crop and is also significantly associated with overall yield variations.; Management policies that barrier against short-term drought may be most effective at sustaining long-term crop productivity.;

Keywords

• agriculture
• climate change
• drought
• spi
• yield