Social Simulation Model of the Spread and Prevention of the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 Variant

Abstract

The enhanced virulence and infectiousness of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 is having more significant impacts on certain socioeconomic areas, and rapidly suppressing the spread of the epidemic remains a priority for maintaining public health security throughout the world. Thus, we applied multi-agent modeling theory to create a social simulation model of Omicron variant transmission and prevention and control in order to analyze the virus transmission status in complex urban systems and its changing trends under different interventions. By considering the six municipal districts under the jurisdiction of Taiyuan City as examples, we developed state transition rules between five types of resident agents, mobility and contact behavior rules, and rules for patient admission behavior by hospital agents. We then conducted multi-scenario simulation experiments based on single measures of pharmacological and non-pharmacological interventions under non-governmental control as well as multiple interventions in combination to evaluate the effects of different measures on rapidly suppressing the spread of the epidemic. The experimental results demonstrated the utility of the model and the multi-agent modeling method effectively analyzed the transmission trends for the Omicron variant, thereby allowing a comprehensive diagnosis of the future urban epidemic situation and providing an important scientific basis for exploring more accurate normalized prevention and control measures.

Keywords

• Omicron variant B.1.1.529
• COVID-19
• urban epidemic prevention and control
• public health safety
• virus prevention and control strategy
• multi-agent modeling