Ziyuan Kexue (Jun 2024)
The impact of carbon trading mechanism and technology application on carbon emission reduction in China’s coal-fired power industry:Multi-agent simulation based on reinforcement learning
Abstract
[Objective] The “3060” dual carbon target introduces new requirements for the low-carbon development of China’s coal-fired power industry. With decreasing carbon quota limits, the focus on low-carbon transformation in this industry has increased among industry and academia. The carbon trading mechanism directs coal-fired power enterprises to reduce emissions and innovate through policy constraints. By enhancing energy efficiency and reducing emissions, it is vital in driving coal-fired power enterprises toward a low-carbon model. However, the micro-level driving mechanism of this transformation process remains underexplored [Methods] This study uses a sample of 2628 coal-fired power enterprises in China from 2022, employing reinforcement learning theory and multi-agent models. Through the Netlogo platform, it simulates and analyzes the interactive and collaborative effects between the carbon market, government, and coal-fired power enterprises with varying carbon reduction tendencies under the carbon trading mechanism. [Results] The research reveals that: (1) The carbon trading mechanism effectively promotes technological carbon reduction in coal-fired power enterprises, achieving both environmental and economic benefits, with significant impacts expected from 2032 onwards. (2) The carbon reduction tendency of these enterprises is influenced by the degree of carbon trading implementation. Before reaching the carbon peak target by 2030, these enterprises did not actively employ carbon reduction technologies as anticipated. (3) A reasonable carbon trading price effectively encourages investment in technology application. Higher carbon prices stimulate greater carbon reduction efforts and increase market activity. The carbon price growth is most significant from 2022 to 2030 and continues to rise steadily from 2032 to 2060. [Conclusion] China’s coal-fired power industry faces challenges in achieving low-carbon transformation. Accelerating the construction of carbon trading market mechanisms, strengthening carbon asset management, improving carbon reduction incentives, and optimizing carbon quota pricing mechanisms are essential for promoting technological emission reduction and the high-quality development of China’s coal-fired power industry.
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