Evaluation of the Dynamical–Statistical Downscaling Model for Extended Range Precipitation Forecasts in China

Abstract

In order to focus on pentad-scale precipitation forecasts, we investigated the coupling relationship between 500 hPa geopotential height (Z500) anomalies and precipitation anomalies using the China Meteorological Administration Global Land Surface ReAnalysis Interim (CRA40/Land) gridded precipitation dataset from 1999 to 2018 and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction 1 reanalysis dataset for Z500. We obtained a dynamical–statistical downscaling model (DSDM) on the pentad scale and used the daily Z500 forecast product for sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts (15–60 days) of the FGOALS-f2 model as the predictor. Our results showed that pentad-scale prediction of precipitation is the key to bridging the current deficiencies in sub-seasonal forecasts. Compared with the FGOALS-f2 model, the pentad DSDM had a higher skill for prediction of precipitation in China at lead times longer than four pentads throughout the year and of two pentads in the summer months. FGOALS-f2 had excellent precipitation predictability at lead times less than three pentads (15 days), so the proposed pentad DSDM could not perform better than FGOALS-f2 in this period. However, at lead times greater than four pentads, the precipitation prediction scores (such as the anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC), the temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) and the mean square skill score (MSSS)) of the pentad DSDM for the whole of China were higher than those of the FGOALS-f2 model. With the rate of increase ranging from 76% to 520%, the mean ACC scores of pentad DSDM were basically greater than 0.04 after a lead time of five pentads, whereas those of the FGOALS-f2 were less than 0.04. An analysis of the Zhengzhou “720” super heavy rainstorm event showed that the pentad DSDM also had better predictability for the distribution of precipitation at lead times of three pentads than the FGOALS-f2 model for the extreme precipitation event.

Keywords

• dynamical–statistical downscaling
• pentad-scale precipitation
• FGOALS-f2
• Zhengzhou “720” torrential rain event
• model optimization