Spatial priority for COVID-19 vaccine rollout against limited supply

Abstract

The COVID-19 vaccines are limited in supply which requires vaccination by priority. This study proposes a spatial priority-based vaccine rollout strategy for Bangladesh. Demographic, economic and vulnerability, and spatial connectivity – these four types of factors are considered for identifying the spatial priority. The spatial priority is calculated and mapped using a GIS-based analytic hierarchy process. Our findings suggest that both demographic and economic factors are keys to the spatial priority of vaccine rollout. Secondly, spatial connectivity is an essential component for defining spatial priority due to the transmissibility of COVID-19. A total of 12 out of 64 districts were found high-priority followed by 22 medium-priorities for vaccine rollout. The proposed strategy by no means suggests ending mass vaccination by descending age groups but an alternative against limited vaccine supply. The spatial priority of the vaccine rollout strategy proposed in this study might help to curb down COVID-19 transmission and to keep the economy moving. The inclusion of granular data and contextual factors can significantly improve the spatial priority identification which can have wider applications for other infectious and transmittable diseases and beyond.

Keywords

• Pandemic
• Demography
• Economy
• Vulnerable groups
• GIS
• Bangladesh