Forecasting malaria incidence based on monthly case reports and environmental factors in Karuzi, Burundi, 1997–2003

Abstract

Abstract Background The objective of this work was to develop a model to predict malaria incidence in an area of unstable transmission by studying the association between environmental variables and disease dynamics. Methods The study was carried out in Karuzi, a province in the Burundi highlands, using time series of monthly notifications of malaria cases from local health facilities, data from rain and temperature records, and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) methodology, a model showing the relation between monthly notifications of malaria cases and the environmental variables was developed. Results The best forecasting model (R2adj = 82%, p Conclusion This model is a simple and useful tool for producing reasonably reliable forecasts of the malaria incidence rate in the study area.