Assessment of extreme climate indices in the Somalia National Regional State, eastern Ethiopia

Abstract

Rising temperature and decreasing rainfall can have adverse effects on socioeconomic activities, particularly in agrarian communities. Climate change poses a significant challenge as extreme temperatures continue to increase and rainfall patterns become more unpredictable. This study aimed to analyze the spatiotemporal variations of extreme climate indices in the Somali National Regional State of Ethiopia. Forty year’s climate data (1983–2022) were obtained from Ethiopian Meteorological Institute at four stations: Afder, Elkerre, Gode, and Korahe stations. The researcher employed RClimDex in R statistical software for data quality control. Mann—Kendall (MK) and Sen’s slope test estimator were used for trend analysis and magnitude of change per year, respectively. There was a statistically significant (p < 0.05) rise in TXx recorded at Afder and Elkerre. The changes in TXx at Afder and Elkerre seemed to be comparable, as increased by 0.06°C, while Korahe and Gode displayed slightly similar patterns with an increase of 0.01°C. Both the cold day (TX10p) and cold night (TN10p) indices showed a decrease in warming trends. The Warm night (TN90P) index showed a negative trend in warming at a −0.06, −0.022, and −0.022 at Korahe, Gode, and Afder, respectively. Our study concluded that there is a consistent increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation indices across all stations that can have significant negative impacts on the environment and the whole-ecosystems. Consequently, it becomes imperative to develop a robust adaptation strategy to foster community resilience.

Keywords

• Climate change
• climate extremes
• climate variability, climate indices, RClimDex