Estimating age-related incidence of HBsAg seroclearance in chronic hepatitis B virus infections of China by using a dynamic compartmental model

Abstract

Abstract The age-specific seroclearance pattern of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) in chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infections of China remains unclear. In this study, based on three national serosurvey data of hepatitis B in China, we propose an age- and time-dependent discrete model and use the method of non-linear least squares to estimate the age-specific annual rate of HBsAg seroclearance. We found that the HBsAg seroclearance in chronic HBV infections of China aged 1–59 years occurred at an average annual rate of 1.80% (95% CI, 1.54–2.06%) from 1993 to 2006. The HBsAg seroclearance occurred predominantly in the early childhood, 20–24 and 35–39 year age groups. Moreover, our model estimated that HBsAg seroclearance resulted in 23.38% of the decrease of total HBsAg prevalence for population aged 1–59 years in 2006. It also prevented 9.30% of new HBV infections (about 7.43 million people) and 9.95% of HBV-related deaths (about 0.25 million people) from 1993 to 2006. This study develops a new and efficient method to estimate the age-specific incidence of HBsAg seroclearance at a population-level and evaluate its effect.