Nomograms for predicting short-term mortality in acute-on-chronic liver disease caused by the combination of hepatitis B virus and alcohol

Abstract

Abstract This study aimed to identify predictive factors for the prognosis of acute-on-chronic liver disease (AoCLD) due to both hepatitis B virus (HBV) and alcohol and to develop prognostic models to improve treatment management. AoCLD patients with HBV and alcohol as etiological factors were selected from two multicenter prospective cohorts (NCT02457637,NCT03641872) and included in separate training and validation cohorts (n = 180 and n = 148). In the training cohort, the CATCH-LIFE A nomogram (based on age, bilirubin, international normalized ratio, serum sodium, and hepatic encephalopathy score) and CATCH-LIFE B nomogram (based on age, bilirubin, international normalized ratio, serum albumin, white blood cell, platelet count, and hepatic encephalopathy score) had discriminatory ability for predicting 28-day (c-indexes of 0.910 and 0.899) and 90-day mortality (c-indexes of 0.878 and 0.887, respectively). The area under the curve values for 28-day and 90-day mortality prediction by the CATCH-LIFE A nomogram were 0.922 (95% CI : 0.874, 0.971) and 0.905 (0.856, 0.956), respectively, while those for the CATCH-LIFE B nomogram were 0.916(0.861,0.972) and 0.915 (0.866,0.964), respectively. Similar performance results were observed in the validation cohort. Optimal cut-off scores for each nomogram could be used for patient stratification in high- and low-risk groups, and the high-risk groups showed shorter survival times than the low-risk groups in both the training and validation cohorts. Two nomograms constructed from the first short-term follow-up data from patients with AoCLD due to combined HBV infection and alcohol exposure showed good predictive performance for 28-day and 90-day mortality and might be used to guide clinical management.

Keywords

• HBV infection
• Alcohol-related liver disease
• Nomogram
• Prospective cohort
• Transplant free survival