A Brief Assessment of the Impact of Nearly 40 Years of Assimilated Observations Over the Amazon Basin

Abstract

Abstract Adding a Forecast Sensitivity‐based Observation Impact component to Version 2 of the Modern Era Retrospective‐analysis for Research and Applications, the present study provides an assessment of the impact of nearly 40 years of observations on short‐range (24‐hr) forecasts over the Amazon basin. Under self‐verification, forecast errors are found to slightly increase from the early data‐sparse days to the more recent years, when data dramatically increase. Throughout the reanalysis, satellite radiances dominate in volume, but only before 1999 they dominate the impacts. Beyond 1999, over 50% of forecast error reduction is associated with conventional observations (radiosondes). Atmospheric Motion Vectors are also found to be large contributors to error reduction, but their contribution reduces in dry periods. In opposition to Atmospheric Motion Vectors, satellite radiances tend to contribute more in the dry season. Results provide motivation for additional conventional observations and the use of all‐sky treatment of radiances.

Keywords

• reanalysis
• forecast sensitivity
• observation impact
• Amazon basin